What a difference a year makes! Economists had a consensus opinion coming into last year that the US would suffer a downturn in 2023. But here we are a year later and perhaps the most predicted recession in US history has yet to materialize. Gross domestic product grew at a faster-than-2% annual rate in the first half of last year, accelerated to 4.9% in the third quarter, and according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, grew at a 2.5% clip in the fourth quarter (estimate as of January 3). As for stocks, one can quibble about the health of the market internals, but based on the performance of the headline averages, 2023 can only be described as a resounding success, especially considering the gloomy outlook entering the year.

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